The Unforgiving Minute » montenegro

Finally, a financial crisis for Montenegro

Paul Currion — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 11:11:50 +0000

Although Serbia has just declared that it is in no way a financial basketcase, Montenegro has ambled along as usual, the inhabitants seemingly unfazed by the structural collapse of international finance. The Montenegrin economy doesn’t on the face of it seem to have much exposure, and the individual Montenegrin even less than that. There are two choices for most people about where they keep their money: in a bank or under the mattress.

In the last week or so, the mattress has been the clear winner. I went to my bank on three occasions to find the lobby packed and stacked with people withdrawing large chunks of their money. The ATM was running out of money as fast as they could fill it, and the bank manager had declared a cap on the amount of money that could be withdrawn daily (which kind of screwed me, to be honest – the workers need beer money, financial crisis or no).

One reason for this is that many adult Montenegrins remember a time when they really did lose all their money as the economy collapsed. After sanctions were imposed by the UN in 1992, accompanied by the collapse of Yugoslavia as an economic entity, the economy basically went to the floor, including some heavy heavy hyper-inflation (4667% in mid-1993 – more details roughly here). When Djukanovic took Montenegro away from the Serbian economy by switching to the Mark in 2000-2001, Montenegrins suffered again, this time from internal sanctions imposed by Serbia.

So, unlike us pampered westerners (with a banking system that actually worked, up until a few weeks ago), their mistrust is well-placed and their response entirely rational. Of course that response is also one reason that banks collapse, as everybody rushes to withdraw their money and the banks fail to shoulder that burden – so the response is also irrational in the sense that it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. Which brings me around to Stumbling and Mumbling’s post on recent rationality.

While I agree that Nicholas Nassim Taleb’s writing is trivially true¹², I don’t think that Stumbly (as a fully paid-up member of the economists’ conspiracy) really gets it:

It looks like we were wrong and Taleb right. But this isn’t because Taleb had any great insights into the nature of risk. It‘s because he thought banks‘ risk managers were idiots, whilst economists didn’t think so – not even me. In doing this, however, we were just following economists’ standard procedure – of assuming that agents were if not rational then at least not wholly stupid. For me, all this is very troubling. It suggests that what we economists have to learn from Taleb has nothing to do with the nature of risk – we‘ve all known that – but about others’ rationality. We should ditch the assumption – which in a sense is mere courtesy – not only that others are rational but even the weaker assumption that they are nearly so. Perhaps we should indeed regard them merely as “empty suits.

He’s basically a Gladwell.
A Gladwell being a writer who has a gift for taking other people’s insights and, while not claiming those insights for themselves, makes it appear as if they’ve developed an entirely new hypothesis.

Why I’ll never be a successful pundit

Paul Currion — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 14:12:25 +0000

Montenegro recognises Kosovo, and I take back everything I said previously about the likelihood of this happening. This is of course deeply ironic considering my previous post on Doug Muir’s admission of error regarding the fruits of independence – at least his predictions were good for two years, whereas mine lasted for about two months.

What’s amusing about this is the timing. The summer season finished a couple of weeks ago, which means that the moderate numbers of Serbs who still holiday in Montenegro have all gone home, and less potential for any “citizen action”, “boycotts” or the like. Montenegrin Serbs are incensed – but in the Balkans, which club would you rather be a member of: the friends of Kosova or the friends of Serbia? In the latter case, membership has distinctly fewer advantages.

Montenegro Adventure Race 2008: not such a good idea as last year

Paul Currion — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 08:31:27 +0000

Driving rain? 5m visibility? No training? It must be the Montenegro Adventure Race 2008! At the last minute I put together a team to take part in a roller-coaster ride of a race, albeit a roller-coaster that only went down. At least Team Property Styling didn’t have the 20-a-day smoking habit that Team Pluto had, which we felt gave us a fighting chance of not coming in last.¹The course this year was different to last:

Starting in Kotor Stari Grad, we ran up the side of Vrmac – although not so much ran as climbed, since that old Austro-Hungarian road hasn’t seen much maintenance since the end of the Austro-Hungarian empire in 1918. Lightning strikes have left burnt-out trees reclining across the road, occasionally losing their purchase on the slippery stones and plummeting down the nearly-vertical mountainside.

The bike leg went over Vrmac to Gornja Lastva and down to the Tivat waterfront – usually a magnificent route, in this case marred slightly by the massive cloud bank that shrouded the top of the ridge and the fact that all our bikes had dodgy gears and slow punctures. The downhill to Gornja Lastva was the site of my ankle injury last year, and this year it was the turn of my knees to get the Vrmac treatment. I now walk with two limps.

The weather was so bad that the kayak leg was almost cancelled, but at the last minute the organisers decided to give us all a sprint finish of 3km from Tivat to Bijela through pouring rain, which was about as much fun as it sounds. Luckily we’d finished the bike leg ahead of most the other contestants, so we were able to wait in a conveniently located bar drinking cappucinos and beer, which took the edge off the kayak considerably.

Although it sounds pretty hellish, I was glad that I’d returned to the fray – and by some miracle Team Property Styling placed 2nd. That’s right, 2nd. Can the gold medal be far away? Find out next year, when the team will consist of four morbidly obese chainsmoking agoraphobics who don’t like getting dirty. Thanks once again to the race organisers at Black Mountain and Kayak Montenegro, upon whom I swear I’ll have my revenge, the various sponsors, and my solid gold team-mates Adrian Simpson, James Horgan and Marcus Parry.

All featured featured photos are at RW’s website, doing a sterling job as official race photographer.

Although I’d originally registered the team as The Last Orders, on the basis that we would probably cross the finish line around 11pm.

Call me Ismail

Paul Currion — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 09:23:10 +0000

This week, legendary sports journalist Rod Curtis was my guest at the building site that I call home. Rod lives in Tirana, and drives the only car currently available in Albania, a black Merc. It’s been a pleasure having him here, except when he wakes me up at 4 in the morning staggering around the house in a drunken stupor trying to turn the lights out by punching them.

My neighbour Adrian was in our local supermarket last week. The nice ladies who work there informed him of their suspicions that the Muslim who lives in our village is a member of al-Qaeda. Adrian was naturally puzzled, since there are no Muslims in our village, until he realised that they meant me. Breaking it down:

Beard + Albanian car = member of al-Qaeda

I’m fairly certain that I’ll never be able to shake their suspicions, no matter how much evidence we present. On the plus side, it’s unlikely that anybody in the village is going to try anything funny if they think I might carbomb their house.

A big man for Montenegro

Paul Currion — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 11:54:56 +0000

It takes a big man to admit that they were wrong. Doug Muir is a big man. Two years ago Doug was arguing that independence for Montenegro was a bad idea, but this past week he has recanted that heresy and now admits that maybe it wasn’t as much of a bad idea as he originally thought. Certainly his admission is slightly grudging – pointing out that Montenegrin government is still “corrupt, inbred, intolerant of criticism, and deeply linked with regional criminal elites” is clearly not unqualified support. Doug, I salute you!

However I think he is fair to point out that there’s still time for things to go wrong. If the tourism continues to dry up, the construction boom will be over; if global recession takes hold, the garment trade is going to go down the toilet. If the economy in general tanks, then dissatisfaction means that Serb and Albanian nationalism will both start to grow – which means that political class will find it increasingly hard to keep the boat from rocking. Suddenly Montenegro won’t look so appealling, investment will start to dry up and it could turn into a long spiral down.

I hope that doesn’t happen, personally. One thing I’m sure of; no matter what happens in Montenegro, Podgorica is never going to be a nice place.

You’re Moving Where Now?

Paul Currion — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 08:29:18 +0000

Rupert and family are moving from the wilds of London to the far more civilised Vancouver Island in Canada, which I believe used to be part of the British Empire until they had their membership revoked for being too close to the US. (Geography fact: Vancouver Island has a larger population than Montenegro.)

I’m proud to say that I knew Rupert before he became a big vlogging star and sold out to The Man – he directed our award-winning (ahem) short film “Tracks”, back when we were in short trousers. For a while I was worried that he would drop out of film-making completely, but he came back from a completely unexpected angle – using his mobile phone camera to shoot and edit short films about his life.

Video-blogging can easily turn into navel-gazing, but he managed to avoid this when he started out by posting what were essentially comedy sketches about a movie geek trapped in a dull office job in his dad’s company. The fact that Rupert was in fact a movie geek trapped in a dull office job in his dad’s company only made the sketches funnier. And sadder. But mainly funnier.

Now he’s all growed up – married to Kate, father of Amy, and no longer working in the dull office job – and his vlogs focus on his real life as opposed to his fantasy life. It’s great stuff, mainly because his slightly manic delivery makes for compelling viewing, but he’s also just a great bloke. Witness one of his recent posts, where he laments the annihilation of the local Post Office and interviews his local PO manager Mrs Patel.

The Minute wishes him the best of British in the New World. Please do keep videoblogging – I would join you, except my cellphone is nowhere near as flash as yours.

Meet the Neighbours

Paul Currion — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 20:17:57 +0000

My life: a goat and a bag of cement.

Please, no obscene jokes.

Post-election euphoria in Montenegro

Paul Currion — Sun, 06 Apr 2008 21:58:39 +0000

Whoop-di-do. That’s about the level of euphoria I can muster.

As of 11pm this evening, Filip Vujanovic had cleared the 50% threshold required to keep him in the Montenegrin presidency – which of course means that Milo Djukanovic is still the power behind the throne in Montenegro. As I’ve said before, I don’t think that the Djukanovic / Vujanovic administration is the worst option for Montenegro, especially at this critical post-independence pre-EU stage. However this does mean business as usual, and that’s not a terribly good thing. Given that they’ve been in power for the last 17 years (I think), the blame for the host of problems that Montenegro faces can be laid squarely at their door. (Richard Cowper ran down a list of those problems for the Montenegro Times.)

Anti-corruption candidate Nebojsa Medojevic ran an interesting campaign, maxing out his photo opportunities and trying to emphasise that he’s accessible and personable – as opposed to Vujanovic, whose PR always seemed to put him in front of some flags looking presidential. Nobody really thought Medojevic could win – but with 15% of the vote, he’s trailing third behind the main Serb candidate, Andrija Mandic, who scored at least 19%.

This suggests two things. First, the Serb vote is stronger than many observers initially thought it would be – although Mandic played up the Kosovo question (to recognise or not to recognise?) considerably in the final stretch of campaigning. This will have some (but not major) implications for how Vujanovic conducts foreign affairs – it’s not as if Montenegro was rushing to recognise Kosovo anyway. Second, the anti-corruption ticket wasn’t as strong as the PzP were counting on, despite the fact that most Montenegrins recognise the problem of corruption as the most obvious one which intrudes on their day-to-day life. (Freedom House’s Nations in Transit report suggests that in more general terms Montenegro is at best standing still in terms of developing a healthy democracy.)

This was a “safe pair of hands” vote; it seems likely that Vujanovic was the beneficiary of the independence honeymoon, particulary following a few years of rude economic health for the country. That health is likely to worsen considerably in the next couple of years, and the question is only how well the DPS will handle it. I think they’ll handle it quite well in the sense of protecting their own financial interests – which in many cases are not that different from Montenegro’s financial interests – but whether they’ll be able to provide leadership that goes beyond that is another question.

The level of interest in this election internationally appears to be almost zero, which is understandable – there’s plenty more interesting things going on in the Balkans, like Ramush Haradinaj being acquitted and Greece administering a diplomatic beatdown to Macedonia. In the long term, however, this result isn’t good for the health of Montenegrin politics, and that has implications for the entire region – remember that Montenegro neighbours Serbia, Kosovo and Albania, and has its own significant Serb, Bosniak and Albanian minorities.

On the other hand, Madonna’s playing Jaz beach this summer. She’ll be 50, you know. Frightening.

Selling Balkan History Short

Paul Currion — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:17:26 +0000

Transitions Online runs an interesting story on that most familiar of Balkan melodies, the rewriting of history. With its independence last year, Montenegro now has to somehow drag itself out from the shadow of big brother Serbia while making too may people angry, a trick which is hard to pull off:

A recent poll suggests that many Montenegrins share Abdomerovic’s moderate nationalism. Conducted in September and October by the independent Center for Democracy and Human Rights, the poll showed that about 35 percent of respondents favored renaming the official language Montenegrin, edging out Serbian by about 5 percent.

There’s a problem with this sort of poll in a country where demographic affiliation can be so contentious. The 2003 census estimated that at least 40% of the population is Montenegrin, while only around 30% are Serbian, and that poll result looks suspiciously like a split along those lines. So many Montenegrins Montenegrins might share that “moderate nationalism”, but they’re likely counter-balanced by Serb Montenegrins who feel short-changed by the whole deal.

The problem is that the Serbian voice isn’t very credible in Montenegro (as far as I know), despite the lack of rancour over the separation of the two countries. A good example of this is given in the article itself, as a Serb intellectual unwittingly demonstrates:

Aleksandar Stamatovic, a pro-Serb historian who lives in Montenegro, said every student in the Balkans should learn one true history, difficult as that might be to reach. Stamatovic would like to take on the job but knows that some of his claims, including that the Srebrenica massacre was exaggerated, if not made up, would scuttle any such opportunity.

Possibly his lack of job opportunities aren’t related to being pro-Serb, but being an apologist for war crimes, but the idea that there is “one true history” is an interesting one for a historian to make. History is always a matter of interpretations, and anybody who tries to tell you otherwise is trying to sell you something.

There’s nothing wrong with revising history textbooks, simply on the basis that our understanding of history changes over time. The problem is that such revision implies that the previous history was false and that those who presented it were liars, which is what makes somebody like Stamatovic angry. If only he – and so many other people in the Balkans – could realise that history doesn’t have to be war by other means.

The Montenegro Adventure Race, which turned out to be a good idea after all

Paul Currion — Mon, 08 Oct 2007 15:35:38 +0000

I’m pleased to report that I survived the first Montenegro Adventure Race. Thanks to Croatia Airlines, I got into Herceg Novi at midnight. Having found Hayley and Jack’s place, I crashed on their sofa until I was woken up at 6am by their baby boy. Suitably refreshed, we all pulled on the relevant gear and headed down to the Hunguest Sun Resort Hotel, where the race was starting at 7am. (We should have set our watches to Montenegro time, since we actually started at 8.30.)

Having been a late entry, I was placed in Ed Milbank’s team “The Dandies” with Ed, Charlie and Natalie. I’d never actually met any of them before, but all were excellent company throughout the day – which was lucky, because it was a team race and we had to stick together the whole way. You can view the race map here, but let’s break it down:

KAYAK. With 9km to paddle, Team Dandies were undaunted by the fact that 50% of the team had never been in a kayak before. I paired up with Natalie in a double, and she turned out to be a natural. Charlie had a few problems at the start, but Ed stayed with him and after the turn at Mamula Island they came in smooth to Zanjice. At this point in the race we were last but, apart from some saltwater chafing, still feeling quite good about ourselves.
CYCLE. Natalie and I went off before Ed and Charlie and stormed ahead, narrowly avoiding death by truck several times but enjoying a relatively relaxed ride over the Lustica peninsula. Once again, Ed and Charlie didn’t have much luck, since one of their bikes had a broken saddle. Ouchtown. Undaunted, we covered 27km of hill riding comfortably, realising that we weren’t going to win but enjoying it anyway.
RUN. We reached the Vrmac Fort in a group, took a break for peanuts and raisins, and jogged off for the final 12km of running on the top of the ridge. To our astonishment we passed three other teams along the way, with only one setback – I turned my ankle on rough ground, which made the rest of the race ~~complete agony~~ a little uncomfortable. I managed to continue solely thanks to the support of Team Dandies, and we romped home like true Olympians.
FOOD AND DRINK. The race participants and supporters recovered in the eco village at Gornja Lastva, another place I’d never been before. The weather had been warm but overcast most of the day (perfect race weather) but the sun came out for us at the end. The village itself was lovely, providing us with a hall to recuperate in and plenty of food and drink to get us back on our feet in time for the party that evening.

There’s a long list of people to thank: the organisers at Black Mountain Adventure Travel and Kayak Montenegro, Jack and Hayley for letting me sleep on their sofa, the kids of Montenegro Forum for cleaning up the route, Marija Nikolic and the preservation society in Gornja Lastva for their hospitality, the Sports Cafe in Herceg Novi for hosting the after-party, the other sponsors of the race, and of course – the other competitors. God, I sound like an Oscar winner.

Verdict: the Montenegro Adventure Race was an absolute blast, and I’ll definitely take part again next year. This year it was strictly for fun – next year we’ll take home the trophy (probably).