April, 2009


24
Apr 09

Now lie in your linguistic bed

New Kosova Report carries an opinion piece entitled God has stopped speaking Serbian. It’s a polemic against Serbs not learning Albanian, disguised as concern for the future of Serbs in Kosova. Thus,

If before Serbs did not really have to learn Albanian because Albanians could and had to speak their language, now learning Albanian is a must to function economically in Kosovo. Otherwise, there won’t be any future for Serbs here. While Serbian is an official language along with Albanian across Kosovo, this is barely essential if only 6% of the population is Serbian… The key for prosperity for all the minorities in Kosovo – Serbian, Roma, Turkish and Bosniak – is being able to function in the dominant language – in this case Albanian.

This is a fairly moderate view in Kosova, acknowledging at least that Serbs (and other minorities) have a place in the country – but even moderation has its limits in Kosovo.1 The basic limit of that moderation is that Kosova is Albanian, and anybody who wants a piece of that future – no matter how long their communities might have lived there – needs to buy into that.

Linguistic chauvinism was one of the factors that drove the conflict in Kosovo prior to 1999, and continues to be a hot topic in the region (particularly in countries with Albanian minorities), but the notion that Serbs must learn Albanian is of course bullshit. If Serbs are citizens of the new Kosova, and  Serbian is one of the official languages of Kosova – both of which the article agrees with – then it’s up to the majority to make the necessary accommodations to the minority. Given how many Kosovar Albanians have lived (and continue to live) in Switzerland, I’m surprised that they haven’t noticed this rather basic requirement of a multilingual state.

Switzerland isn’t the best example – the Swiss-German continually chafe at the fact that they need to learn French to work in the government, while the Swiss-French seem to have little requirement to learn German. However they don’t use this as an excuse to force the Swiss-French to learn German, or to deny that they can be citizens if they don’t. This seems like common sense to me, but that’s not how we roll in the Balkans, unfortunately. And so the merry-go-round continues, with language used as a club to bash people with.

Depressing. If you want some more positive news about Albanian-Serb relation, then this report in Balkan Insight will warm the cockles of your heart. Serbs visiting Pristina? Astonishing:2

… of course I was reluctant to speak Serbian openly at first. But whenever someone overheard me speaking it in a café or restaurant, the only reaction was pleasant surprise and genuine joy. Most Albanians in those situations will squeeze out as many words of Serbian they know (be it a lot or just a little), smile, ask how are things in Belgrade, or even play some music commonly considered as “naša” (covering a wide array from Serbian turbo-folk over Bosnian sevdalinke to Croatian soft pop, but that’s an altogether different story). It seems they don’t think we eat little children for breakfast. Which is food for thought, if you can pardon the pun.

20
Apr 09

R.I.P.J.G.B.

J. G. Ballard was the ghostwriter for postwar English literature, standing at the shoulder of all writers who staked out the city or the suburbs1 whether they realised it or not. You’ll read about his literary achievements in the obituaries that spring up like mushrooms around his death yesterday, but I doubt that those achievements were his greatest pleasure. His last book, the autobiography Miracles of Life: Shanghai to Shepperton, is dedicated to his real achievement: the three children he raised as a single father after the death of his wife Mary in 1964.

My direction as a writer changed after Mary’s death, and many readers thought that I became far darker. But I like to think I was much more radical, in a desperate attempt to prove that black was white, that two and two made five in the moral arithmetic of the 1960s. I was trying to construct an imaginative logic that made sense of Mary’s death and would prove that the assassination of President Kennedy and the countless deaths of the Second World War had been worthwhile or even meaningful in some as yet undiscovered way. Then, perhaps, the ghosts inside my head , the old beggar under the quilt of snow, the strangled Chinese at the railway station, Kennedy and my young wife, could be laid to rest.

Ballard lived most of his life in the UK in Shepperton, which by meaningless coincidence is where my grandparents lived, and I like to imagine that I passed him many times on Shepperton High Street without realising it. I read everything I could find by Ballard when I was growing up – finding in his writing a survival kit that helped me to reconfigure suburbia as a place of strangeness rather than banality – so I suppose that I crossed paths with him in a literary sense; and that will have to be enough. R.I.P.

  1. Although not the countryside, which in literary terms I think would have been more alien to him than Mars. []

18
Apr 09

The #Wisdom of Crowds

If you don’t live on the web, then you will have literally no idea what #amazonfail was. Don’t worry – it’s gone now, and I’m guessing it had absolutely no impact on your life. In the echo chamber that is the web, however, it was huge; and it’s had a twofold impact.

First it’s shown the way in which bonds of trust between retailer and consumer can be broken very easily on the web, which people seem to think is a big issue – as if anybody “trusts” a web retailer to do anything more than deliver on time, and as if anybody is going to remember this about a month from now. I am confident that the negative impact of #amazonfail will last all the way into next week and then be forgotten just like everything else on the web.

Second it’s clear that the web remains far from the dreams of the technotopians in terms of empowering people’s decision-making through providing better information. Clay Shirky’s mea culpa has attracted a lot of praise for providing a clear-eyed insight into the mechanics of mob rule on the web, but nobody’s noticed that it conceals more than it reveals. Let’s break it down:

  • Shirky is human.
  • Humans suffer from a huge range of cognitive biases.
  • These biases lead them to do stupid things without realising it.
  • In particular, people do really stupid things when they get into a crowd filled with lots of other people doing the same stupid thing (which is itself a bias).
  • Once those stupid things have been done, it’s almost impossible to go back on them, because that requires that you admit to yourself that you did something stupid (and that’s a whole psychological heory of bias).

To the casual observer of human behaviour,  none of these things will come as any surprise. That only makes it more surprising to find that although Shirky – a genuinely insightful thinker who has studied crowd behaviour for many years – realises that he fell into an obvious trap and now regrets it, he doesn’t seem to realise that this is what humans are like, and that no amount of technological progress is going to change that.

The comments on Shirky’s post are filled with people who joined the crowd and now refuse to face the fact that perhaps they were wrong – they’re still whining about how Amazon must have done something wrong, even if that something was “having a database”. My particular favourite is an attempted defense that Shirky links to (for balance) entitled Why Amazon Didn’t Just Have a Glitch:

The issue with #AmazonFail isn’t that a French Employee pressed the wrong button or could affect the system by changing “false” to “true” in filtering certain “adult” classified items, it’s that Amazon’s system has assumptions such as: sexual orientation is part of “adult”. And “gay” is part of “adult.” In other words, #AmazonFail is about the subconscious assumptions of people built into algorithms and classification that contain discriminatory ideas.

Essentially her defense of the cognitive biases of #amazonfail is to attack the cognitive biases of Amazon, and it’s somehow moving to see this testimony to our common humanity, even if that testimony is utterly lacking in self-awareness. The epic fail of #amazonfail is an opportunity for many people to raise that level of self-awareness, but only a few such as Shirky will make the most of that opportunity.


16
Apr 09

Water, water everywhere

Or not, if you live in Mexico City:

Mexico City officials have shut down a main pipeline providing fresh water to millions of residents because reserves have fallen to record low levels. The closure, due to last 36 hours, will affect five million people, or a quarter of the city’s population… This is the third time the capital has faced such a drastic form of water rationing this year, the BBC’s Stephen Gibbs in Mexico City reports.

Back in the 1990s, the prospect of water wars was all very exciting for students and professionals in violent conflict. The political economy of war was coming into the mainstream, with very little disagreement that diamonds and similar resources were key drivers in either generating or sustaining conflict. There was an assumption that the same could be said for any type of natural resource – including water, the “blue gold” of the twenty-first century,  and thus the idea of water wars was born.

Nature magazine has pay-walled Wendy Barnaby’s original story Do nations go to war over water? but Jack Shafer covers it in Dispelling the water-war myth. Barnaby writes:

Countries do not go to war over water, they solve their water shortages through trade and international agreements.

and Shafer adds:

Water scarcity in the region results in “conflict and tension,” Barnaby adds, but the Israeli and the Palestinian officials have successfully used a committee (controlled by the Israelis) to peacefully resolve problems. In other places where competition for water should theoretically escalate into violence, Barnaby finds similar resolution…

Jared Diamond opens Collapse with a chapter in which where he describes the various environmental pressures at play in the Bitterroot Valley of Montana, including the “apparently intractable” problem of managing the water supply. He quickly identifies the key weakness in Barnaby and Shafer’s optimism about negotiated solutions to these problems.

Until 2003, many of those potential conflicts in the Bitterroot Valley were amicably adjudicated for several decades by Vern Woolsey, the 82-year-old water commissioner whom everyone respected, but my Bitterroot friends are terrified at the potential for conflict now that Vern has finally stepped down.

Successful conflict resolution requires trust, particularly in individuals and institutions tasked with mediating the conflict, and without that trust conflict is nearly inevitable. Unfortunately trust is an even more scarce and fragile commodity than water, and one it starts to break down it’s hard to restore it. In his book Diamond marshalls an impressive historical range of examples of exactly what happens when key resources – such as water – start to become scarce, degraded or disappear entirely.

Barnaby seems to have focused her attention on “wars” in the twentieth-century sense of countries throwing armies at each other, which as we all know is a wholly inaccurate description of wars in general. In that limited sense, she’s correct to point out that nobody has yet gone to war explicitly in the name of water – but then nobody has yet gone to war explicitly in the name of oil, and I don’t think anybody doubts that oil has been a key driver in (cough cough) some recent conflicts.

Barnaby couldn’t find enough material to write a book about water wars, but perhaps she should have looked more closely at national and communal tensions where water supply may be a key driver in an admittedly complex set of environmental problems.  She could start with, oh, I don’t know, Darfur?1

  1. Although note that the UN’s position on the role of climate in the conflict is felt by some to be overstated, I tend to agree with Thomas Homer-Dixon’s views on climate and conflict. []

14
Apr 09

Tough on pirates, tough on the causes of pirates

If I was a terrorist, I’d be angry that pirates are grabbing the headlines. Perhaps people would have taken piracy more seriously sooner if we’d been referring to them as “terrorists of the seas”? Everybody loves pirates except for the French and the Americans, who have decided to start shooting pirates in the head,1 unleashing a wave of speculation about how to deal with the tricky devils.

Over at the Danger Room, Nathan Hodge lays out the options, which include killing more pirates, arming crews, forming convoys and so forth, before concluding that there are few good options. John Robb, a more lateral thinker, believes that the eventual policy that will be adopted is a “Somali Coast Guard“, i.e. a Sons of Iraq style militia whose bills will presumably be paid by governments on behalf of their shipping companies. On a million different blogs you can also find people whose main recommendation is to bomb Somalia back to the Stone Age – ironic, given their opinions of the current state of Somalia.

Military solutions have a monetary cost and a strategic cost. In this case the monetary cost will be high but bearable, but the strategic cost – well, we’ve already paid that. Some people believe that killing more pirates will have a deterrent effect against future hostage situations occurring. This is wrong. Killing pirates will ensure that, in future, hostage situations will be more likely to end in the deaths of the hostages, particularly if those hostages are American (or French). So killing pirates – especially taking the killing to the pirate lairs, i.e. impoverished Somali fishing villages – scores 11 on the stupidometer.

Abdullahi Lami, one of the pirates holding a Greek ship anchored in the Somali town of Gaan, said: “Every country will be treated the way it treats us. In the future, America will be the one mourning and crying. We will retaliate… the killings of our men.”

“Oy Paul,” I hear you cry, “always with the negative! What do you suggest we do about this terrible situation?” Well, first, everybody should calm down. The cost of these kidnappings should be borne by shipping companies, but there’s a danger that, with national governments involved, there may be even less incentive for shipping companies to invest in anti-piracy measures.2 The obvious suggestion is that companies keep paying the ransoms and accept it as an operating cost, particularly if they’re cutting corners in order to cut costs:

The merchant ship-owners are also recommended to keep their vessels 600 miles away from Somalia’s eastern seaboard from where most of the pirates emerge. Not all the merchant ships, however, conform to the rules. Some fail to use the transit routes, and others give scant attention to installing anti-piracy defences.

Second, perhaps we could look at the reasons that Somalis become pirates? It’s easy to dismiss Somalia as a basket case filled with well-armed maniacs, but this would be a mistake. Johann Hari notes that there are legitimate grievances amongst coastal Somalis, particularly since, in the absence of a state, foreign vessels have been dumping toxic waste, fishing out local stocks and generally taking advantage.

Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, the UN envoy to Somalia, tells me: “Somebody is dumping nuclear material here. There is also lead, and heavy metals such as cadmium and mercury – you name it.” Much of it can be traced back to European hospitals and factories, who seem to be passing it on to the Italian mafia to “dispose” of cheaply… At the same time, other European ships have been looting Somalia’s seas of their greatest resource: seafood. We have destroyed our own fish stocks by overexploitation – and now we have moved on to theirs. More than $300m-worth of tuna, shrimp, and lobster are being stolen every year by illegal trawlers.

Some pirates have claimed that they’re already acting in the public interest, although it’s a thin line between that, banditry and good business sense:

We don’t consider ourselves [pirates]. We consider [pirates] those who illegally fish in our seas and dump waste in our seas and carry weapons in our seas. We are simply patrolling our seas. Think of us like a coast guard…. We don’t want these weapons to go to anyone in Somalia. Somalia has suffered from many years of destruction because of all these weapons… We are not going to offload the weapons. We just want the money.

So third, we should recognise that being a pirate is a lifestyle choice that makes sense when you are dirt poor:

Generations of children followed their fathers to sea and a lucrative career in fishing. They still want to go to sea. Only now they dream of being pirates. “I want be a pirate, they have cool cars and lots of money,” said a boy, 13, staring out to sea.

Who are we to deny that little boy his dream? Who are we to stifle his ambition? Piracy is big business:

Last year Somali pirates mounted 111 attacks and captured 42 ships, according to the International Maritime Bureau. Ransom demands have ranged from $1 million to $8 million, earning the modern-day brigands an estimated $30 million in ransom payments in 2008.

The way to deal with piracy is very simple but completely unacceptable. It’s to invest in coastal Somali communities, with the international community providing:

  1. Tighter regulation of commercial shipping, including making anti-piracy measures compulsory for all shipping along hazardous routes;
  2. Increased security to guarantee Somali fishing waters and prevent abuse of the coastline, including (for agreed periods) naval patrols;
  3. Improved capacity for Somali fishermen, including training in fishing techniques and re-training for those unable to make a living from fishing;
  4. Guaranteed market value for the fish caught by Somali fishermen – basically, buy their fish at a fair price on a consistent basis.

This of course should be on top of general development investments in Somalia – but that’s a whole other tricky kettle of sly fish, unlikely to yield much in the way of results. John Robb’s idea of a Somali Coast Guard might also work for a limited period, but a more sustainable solution is (in addition to the above) community education programmes to increase social pressure on people not to become pirates. All of these measures could contribute towards a solution, but we have to recognise two limitations here: first, some people just love being a pirate, so you’ll never eliminate it completely; and second, killing people is easier than helping them, so it’s probably the stupid people who will carry the argument in this case.


11
Apr 09

Plus ça change

Doctors attached to various torture centers intervene after every session to put the tortured back into condition for new sessions. Under the circumstances, the important thing is for the prisoner…to remain alive. Everything – heart stimulants, massive doses of vitamins-is used before, during, and after sessions to keep the Algerian hovering between life and death.

- Frantz Fanon, A Dying Colonialism, 1959

The 40-page confidential report, written in 2007, describes how medical staff working for the CIA monitored prisoners’ vital signs to make sure they did not drown while being subjected to waterboarding, during which water is poured over a cloth placed over a person’s nose and mouth… As well as the monitoring of specific methods of ill-treatment, the report said, other health personnel were alleged to have directly participated in the interrogation process. One detainee alleged that a health person threatened that medical care would be conditional upon cooperation with interrogation.

- CIA medics joined in Guantánamo torture sessions, says Red Cross, 7 April 2009


8
Apr 09

Stalking the wild asparagus

Wild asparagus, not so wild any more

Wild asparagus, not so wild any more

On Sunday I spent the afternoon with friends picking wild asparagus in the hills behind my home. Once you know where to look for it, you realise it’s everywhere, although it prefers to hide in plants with particularly vicious thorns. It’s more bitter than commercial asparagus but still tasty; the usual way of cooking it locally is to use eggs to balance the bitterness, and add whatever fresh herbs you have to hand. My version:

Wild Asparagus Scrambler (serves 2)

  • 2 handfuls of wild asparagus
  • 1 large onion
  • 4-5 eggs
  • Feta
  • Butter
  • Parsley (in this case, wild)
  • Salt and pepper to taste

1. Remove the lower, woody parts from the stems of the asparagus.
2. Steam the asparagus for around 4-5 minutes.
3. While steaming, chop the onion finely and fry in the butter until transparent.
4. While steaming and frying, break and beat the eggs.
5. Drain the asparagus and chop into small pieces.
6. Add the asparagus and eggs to the pan with the onion.
7. Allow the eggs to begin cooking, then start scrambling.
8. Add herbs and seasoning as necessary.
9. Cube and add the feta before serving.

The next day I felt like something different, so this:

Wild Asparagus Stir Fry

  • Udon noodles
  • Wild asparagus
  • Domestic garlic
  • Red pepper
  • Onion
  • Soy sauce
  • Sesame oil

This is simple and tasty, but no hope for you if you don’t know how to stir fry. The domestic garlic isn’t as pungent as the garlic you usually get from the market, so it doesn’t clash too much with the bitter taste of the asparagus, and the soy sauce balances the bitterness quite well. The red pepper is in there mainly to give it some colour, otherwise it just looks green.