November, 2008


30
Nov 08

Now it’s really time to worry about the economy

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is really simple to understand. It’s an aggregate indicator of shipping costs along 26 key dry bulk routes, and a proxy for how much bulk goods are moving around the world. The higher the BDI, the more stuff is shifting; the more stuff is shifting, the more economic activity is going on.

The BDI is also really obscure, which is why you don’t see it mentioned in many news reports. This is a great shame, because it’s a preview of what the world’s economy is going to be doing in 2-6 months time. This is because the amount of goods being shipped now defines how much economic activity is going to be happening when those goods finally reach their destination.

It’s therefore extremely worrying to see a graph like this:

The Baltic Dry Index drops like a rock.

The BDI is at the lowest that it’s been for a loooooooong time (at least a decade) – down from an all-time high a mere 6 months ago – which means that the global economy is dropping like a stone. Note that this drop is so precipitous largely because of previously high levels, and that high was most likely due to China’s increased demand for bulk imports. The woes of the BDI might be largely due to China facing a significant drop in growth – but for some reason I don’t find that much consolation.

Of course, shipping companies are going to be the first to feel the pressure, as Der Spiegel reports, but if I had any doubts about the rough ride that 2009 is going to present, those doubts are now gone.


30
Nov 08

Words per minute #12: Dürrenmatt on the Self

What one commonly called one’s self was merely a collective term for all the selves gathered up in the past, a great heap of selves perpetually growing under the constant rain of selves drifting down through the present from the future, an accumulation of shreds of experience and memory, comparable to a mound of leaves that grows higher and higher under a steady drift of other falling leaves.

- Friedrich Dürrenmatt, The Assignment


29
Nov 08

Mumbai’s terror in the mirror

Like everybody else, I read about the terror attacks in Mumbai. It’s fascinating how much this has become a global story; partly because of the terror elements, partly because of the new technology. To a large extent, however, these attacks matter because India matters. On the one hand this gladdens me – because India does matter – but it also saddens me, because other parts of the world matter just as much.

The other aspect of these events that stand out is the way in which each observer – however intelligent, however well-informed – is unable to escape their own perspective. Thus Butterflies and Wheels sees “horrible horrible horrible people who like hurting and killing people”, the Long War Journal sees “Foreign assault teams that likely trained and originated from outside the country infiltrated a major city to conduct multiple attacks on carefully chosen targets”, a contributor on Wikipedia states with confidence that he has”both Pakistani and Indian friends here in Toronto, they is a difference of NIGHT and DAY. All the Indians in our company are dark skinned and of short stature. The Pakistanis are always the opposite in physcial looks.”

The internet is no cure for a lack of imagination, which appears to be the single biggest stumbling block in combating terrorism. We all want the enemy to be clearly visible, to be clearly distinguishable, although most of all we want the enemy not to be us.1 Yet for most outsiders, ignorant of the history of Kashmir, blind to the intersection of crime and communalism (so brilliantly sketched in Suketu Mehta‘s Maximum City), unconcerned by the legacy of partition in all its forms, these attacks are an opportunity mainly to entertain their own prescriptions. It’s understandable; but it’s not enough.

My thoughts are with the victims of these attacks, rich and poor; but my concern is for the future victims. India has a terrible track record of communal violence triggered by key events, and these attacks are likely to have the opposite effect that the terrorists wanted – (Hindu) mob vengeance against innocent (Muslim) citizens. The question is not whether India can combat terrorism, but whether it can combat the communal tensions that provide continual fuel for that terrorism.

  1. Most interesting blog post so far: a transcript of India TV’s interview with one of the terrorists at How I Learned to Stop Worrying. []

28
Nov 08

Hajduk lives, Kubrick dies

Triple Canopy has essays that read like fiction but we hope are fact.

First: Bandit country in Bosnia

Second: Architectural fever dreams of Star Wars

This is what I read while avoiding doing any actual writing.


26
Nov 08

The best news I’ve had all year

Now that I’ve blazed a trail with my advocacy of emergency naps, Science is trying to catch up with me. Good luck, Science!


25
Nov 08

Death comes to the Barefoot

I don’t always agree with the Barefoot Bum, but there are few philosophy bloggers whose writing is as lucid and uncompromising, and that’s something I can get with. In a response to some posts on communism by dbzero, he puts forward a possible defense of communism – or more specifically of the USSR and the PRC – that uses a balance sheet approach.

To what degree are the people who died under Stalin or Mao (especially Mao) offset by those that were saved? Compared to both societies before their revolutions, what was the improvement in material standards of living and medical care, both of which profoundly expect both life expectancy and quality of life?

While these questions are valid, this defense will not work well for one simple reason. While balance sheets do have a useful role in judging success and failure, but they are notoriously difficult to use when human lives are involved. This is not because human life is invaluable, but for precisely the opposite reason – because we do place a concrete value on individual human lives, even if we can’t articulate the precise amount of that value.

This can be seen in peoples’ responses to the death of a child versus the death of an old person; nearly everybody would agree that the loss of a child is the greater loss (including old people, of course). Balance sheets run into difficulties not because human lives are valuable, but because that sense of value is subjective. Nobody will agree on how much a human life should be valued at, partly because we’re afraid that this will expose our express belief that human life is invaluable (and therefore sacrosanct) as a sham. Nobody wants to be the first to shout the emperor has no clothes in this particular instance. (Possible exception: Peter Singer, who’s practically made a career out of it.)

How might we deal with this problem, especially in the company of people such Massimo Pigliucci’s repugnant dinner companions? Well, one could argue that any excess mortality in the service of political goals is unacceptable – but then that lands all of us in the same boat, and also overlooks the fact that heroic sacrifice for the fatherland / motherland / country of choice often makes such excess mortality voluntary (as well as being widely respected). Excess mortality alone makes for good headlines, but is not in and of itself a measure of culpability – which is presumably what we’re after in this case.

I propose that we must subdivide excess mortality into three distinct types. This will enable us to avoid comparing apples with oranges, although we may in fact find that the line between apple and orange is a little blurred. The three types are deliberate, incidental and accidental and I’ll explain the distinctions in my next blog post when I stop blogging about Batman R.I.P.


22
Nov 08

Planet Suicide

First:

A teenager in the US state of Florida has committed suicide in front of a live internet audience. Abraham Biggs, 19, from Pembroke Pines, near Miami, killed himself hours after announcing his intention to do so on his blog.

Second:

A former police chief in Argentina, wanted for alleged crimes against human rights, has shot himself dead in front of television cameras. Mario Ferreyra was giving an interview on top of a water tank at his home in the northern province of Tucuman… pulled a pistol from his boot and shot himself behind the ear. The Cronica television cameras were still rolling, transmitting live, as the distraught family gathered round.

Third:

And there the children of dark Night have their dwellings, Sleep and Death, awful gods. The glowing Sun never looks upon them with his beams, neither as he goes up into heaven, nor as he comes down from heaven. And the former of them roams peacefully over the earth and the sea’s broad back and is kindly to men; but the other has a heart of iron, and his spirit within him is pitiless as bronze: whomsoever of men he has once seized he holds fast: and he is hateful even to the deathless gods.

Some argue that communications technology has been driven by Eros, but surely Thanatos must have his turn?